{ "purpose": "Independent bounded arithmetic memo for future conditional UK owner/fleet article, not a current purchase proposition, valuation, tax opinion or investment recommendation. No web research, quotes or asserted real procurement prices.", "critical_unknowns": [ "No UK Cybercab purchase price, sale date, right to buy, legal operator pathway, Tesla network access/fee contract, financing offer or insurance quote is established by this model.", "A vehicle sale does not itself confer permission for unattended paid passenger service or participation in a particular platform. Editor owns actual primary-source legal/product research.", "No assumption that every owner can find enough demand, buy identical software rights, obtain affordable insurance or access the modelled remote-assistance service." ], "common_explicit_hypothetical_inputs": { "currency": "GBP", "vat": "For COMPARISON ONLY both1vehicle and5vehicle businesses are assumed VAT-registered and fares subject to an assumed20% VAT rate. This is an arithmetic assumption, not a conclusion about actual UK rate, registration threshold, principal/agent status or recoverability. Editor must verify tax treatment separately.", "fare_definition": "Gross passenger charge per occupied vehicle-mile including assumed VAT; excludes separate time charges, tips, pooling, airport charges and subsidies. One party occupies vehicle; no multiplication by passenger count.", "platform_commission": "20% of fare sales EXCLUDING VAT. Actual contractual denominator, supplierVAT/reversecharge and network right are unknown.", "payment_fee": "Separate2% of gross passenger fares, ADDITIONAL to commission only because model assumes not included. Set to0 if real commission already includes it. Costs shown after assumed recoverable inputVAT, not automatic exemption.", "scheduled_service": "300days/year*12hours/day=3600hours/vehicle;65days and other12hours/day unscheduled. Scheduled time includes waiting, deadhead and operational slack; no24/7 availability claim.", "demand_and_mileage": "Occupied hours are20/35/55% of SCHEDULED hours; occupied-mile share55/65/75% is a separate empty-mile assumption. Both occupied and empty driving assumed16mph, and total driving hours checked below schedule. No double-discount for downtime.", "energy": "0.30kWh drawn from grid per total vehicle-mile, INCLUDING modelled charging losses and allocated auxiliary/idle energy, at assumed£0.30/kWh =>£0.09/totalmile. Do not add charging loss again. No price forecast.", "routine_costs": "£0.06/totalmile tyres/routine maintenance;£0.04/totalmile cleaning. Totalvariable£0.19/totalmile. Separate fixed outsourced remote-assistance£0.75/scheduledhour is a placeholder service that may not exist at this price.", "asset_and_life": "Vehicle£40000net assumedrecoverableVAT, residual£8000after8years, straightline depreciation£4000/year. Original battery consumption included in asset depreciation. Charger/sitecapex1vehicle£4000,5vehicles£16000,8yearlife0residual. Not a knownUKCybercabprice.", "battery_earmark": "£0.03/totalmile set aside in cash for uncertain future battery/capital work. NOT an expense in EBITDA/PBT and NOT added to depreciation: original battery wear is already in depreciation. Earmark remains business-owned cash; it only reduces freely distributable cash in these conservative cash illustrations. Actual future replacement spend is NOT projected; when it occurs reassess capitalisation, depreciation, residual and life. Do not expense reserve plus depreciate/spend same replacement again.", "finance": "50% of netcapex debt,8% annual interest,5annual endyear amortising payments, nofees. Year1interest=openingprincipal*8%; principal repayment reduces cash, not accountingprofit. Workingcapital funded byequity. These are invented financing terms, not creditavailability.", "owner_time": "1vehicle200hours/year;5vehicles700hours/year valued£25/hour. Presented separately because unpaid owner labour is not a cash expense; paying a wage changes cash and taxes. These allowances may understate real work. No passive-income assumption.", "input_vat": "All base operating costs/netcapex are economic amounts AFTER assumed recoverable inputVAT where applicable. RecoverableVAT is not profit; grossVATfunding and reclaim timing excluded. Extra20%capexbridge illustrated separately; actual purchase/lease restrictions and invoice treatment unknown. NonrecoverableVAT increases relevant costs/capex. Insurance, financial charges and other invoices are NOT assumed universally taxable at20%.", "scope_exclusions": "No income/corporation/dividend/payrolltax calculation, inflation, demandgrowth, startup revenue delay, grants, resale cashflow, major collisions, exceptional repair, regulatory redesign or full future capitalreplacement schedule. Tax and funding requirements can materially change results." }, "results": [ { "vehicles": 1, "scenario": "downside", "inputs": { "fare_gbp_per_occupied_mile_including_assumed_vat": 2.0, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_scheduled_service_hours": 0.2, "occupied_miles_fraction_of_total_vehicle_miles": 0.55 }, "operating_activity": { "scheduled_service_hours": 3600, "occupied_hours": 720, "paid_miles": 11520, "total_vehicle_miles": 20945, "empty_miles": 9425, "total_driving_hours_assuming_16mph": 1309, "scheduled_hours_minus_driving_hours": 2291, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_calendar_hours": 0.082 }, "annual_gbp_rounded_to_100": { "gross_passenger_fares": 23000, "assumed_output_vat_within_fares": 3800, "net_fare_sales_ex_vat": 19200, "platform_commission_20pct_net_sales": 3800, "separate_payment_fee_2pct_gross_fares": 500, "electricity": 1900, "tyres_routine_maintenance": 1300, "cleaning": 800, "fixed_direct_and_shared_costs": 15900, "operating_cash_surplus_before_finance_tax_owner_pay_and_capex_ebitda": -5000, "depreciation": 4500, "accounting_operating_profit_before_finance_tax_owner_pay": -9500, "year1_interest": 1800, "accounting_profit_before_tax_and_unpaid_owner_time": -11200, "unpaid_owner_time_opportunity_cost_not_extra_cash_expense": 5000, "profit_before_tax_after_owner_time_opportunity_cost": -16200, "ringfenced_battery_future_replacement_cash_not_expense": 600, "debt_annual_payment_interest_plus_principal": 5500, "year1_principal_within_payment_not_an_expense": 3800, "cash_after_debt_and_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": -11100, "cash_after_debt_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": -16100, "unlevered_cash_after_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": -5600, "unlevered_cash_after_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": -10600 }, "capital_and_finance_gbp": { "vehicle_asset_cost_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 40000, "charger_site_capex_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 4000, "total_net_capex": 44000, "working_capital_buffer": 5000, "unlevered_initial_funding_net_capex_plus_working_capital": 49000, "loan_opening_balance_50pct_capex": 22000.0, "equity_initial_net_capex_less_loan_plus_working_capital": 27000.0, "hypothetical_20pct_capex_vat_bridge_additional_to_funding": 8800.0 }, "fixed_cost_detail_gbp": { "insurance_placeholder": 6000, "road_tax_permits_placeholder": 800, "connectivity": 600, "depot_parking_utility_standing_cost": 3600, "outsourced_remote_assistance": 2700.0, "business_admin_tools": 1200, "professional_compliance_allowance": 1000 }, "owner_time_hours_per_year": 200, "simple_payback_years_using_constant_year1_cash_not_forecast": { "unlevered_initial_funding_divided_by_unlevered_cash_before_owner_pay": null, "unlevered_after_imputed_owner_pay": null, "equity_initial_funding_divided_by_cash_after_debt_before_owner_pay": null, "equity_after_imputed_owner_pay": null }, "no_input_vat_recovery_example_gbp_additional_cost_if_20pct_applies": { "upfront_capex_increase": 8800.0, "annual_electricity_maintenance_cleaning_increase_only": 800, "other_invoice_vat_effects": "Not calculated: actual taxability/recoverability of platform, rent, insurance, finance and other costs requires real advice/invoices." } }, { "vehicles": 1, "scenario": "middle", "inputs": { "fare_gbp_per_occupied_mile_including_assumed_vat": 2.5, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_scheduled_service_hours": 0.35, "occupied_miles_fraction_of_total_vehicle_miles": 0.65 }, "operating_activity": { "scheduled_service_hours": 3600, "occupied_hours": 1260, "paid_miles": 20160, "total_vehicle_miles": 31015, "empty_miles": 10855, "total_driving_hours_assuming_16mph": 1938, "scheduled_hours_minus_driving_hours": 1662, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_calendar_hours": 0.144 }, "annual_gbp_rounded_to_100": { "gross_passenger_fares": 50400, "assumed_output_vat_within_fares": 8400, "net_fare_sales_ex_vat": 42000, "platform_commission_20pct_net_sales": 8400, "separate_payment_fee_2pct_gross_fares": 1000, "electricity": 2800, "tyres_routine_maintenance": 1900, "cleaning": 1200, "fixed_direct_and_shared_costs": 15900, "operating_cash_surplus_before_finance_tax_owner_pay_and_capex_ebitda": 10800, "depreciation": 4500, "accounting_operating_profit_before_finance_tax_owner_pay": 6300, "year1_interest": 1800, "accounting_profit_before_tax_and_unpaid_owner_time": 4500, "unpaid_owner_time_opportunity_cost_not_extra_cash_expense": 5000, "profit_before_tax_after_owner_time_opportunity_cost": -500, "ringfenced_battery_future_replacement_cash_not_expense": 900, "debt_annual_payment_interest_plus_principal": 5500, "year1_principal_within_payment_not_an_expense": 3800, "cash_after_debt_and_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": 4400, "cash_after_debt_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": -600, "unlevered_cash_after_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": 9900, "unlevered_cash_after_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": 4900 }, "capital_and_finance_gbp": { "vehicle_asset_cost_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 40000, "charger_site_capex_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 4000, "total_net_capex": 44000, "working_capital_buffer": 5000, "unlevered_initial_funding_net_capex_plus_working_capital": 49000, "loan_opening_balance_50pct_capex": 22000.0, "equity_initial_net_capex_less_loan_plus_working_capital": 27000.0, "hypothetical_20pct_capex_vat_bridge_additional_to_funding": 8800.0 }, "fixed_cost_detail_gbp": { "insurance_placeholder": 6000, "road_tax_permits_placeholder": 800, "connectivity": 600, "depot_parking_utility_standing_cost": 3600, "outsourced_remote_assistance": 2700.0, "business_admin_tools": 1200, "professional_compliance_allowance": 1000 }, "owner_time_hours_per_year": 200, "simple_payback_years_using_constant_year1_cash_not_forecast": { "unlevered_initial_funding_divided_by_unlevered_cash_before_owner_pay": 5.0, "unlevered_after_imputed_owner_pay": 10.1, "equity_initial_funding_divided_by_cash_after_debt_before_owner_pay": 6.2, "equity_after_imputed_owner_pay": null }, "no_input_vat_recovery_example_gbp_additional_cost_if_20pct_applies": { "upfront_capex_increase": 8800.0, "annual_electricity_maintenance_cleaning_increase_only": 1200, "other_invoice_vat_effects": "Not calculated: actual taxability/recoverability of platform, rent, insurance, finance and other costs requires real advice/invoices." } }, { "vehicles": 1, "scenario": "upside", "inputs": { "fare_gbp_per_occupied_mile_including_assumed_vat": 3.0, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_scheduled_service_hours": 0.55, "occupied_miles_fraction_of_total_vehicle_miles": 0.75 }, "operating_activity": { "scheduled_service_hours": 3600, "occupied_hours": 1980, "paid_miles": 31680, "total_vehicle_miles": 42240, "empty_miles": 10560, "total_driving_hours_assuming_16mph": 2640, "scheduled_hours_minus_driving_hours": 960, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_calendar_hours": 0.226 }, "annual_gbp_rounded_to_100": { "gross_passenger_fares": 95000, "assumed_output_vat_within_fares": 15800, "net_fare_sales_ex_vat": 79200, "platform_commission_20pct_net_sales": 15800, "separate_payment_fee_2pct_gross_fares": 1900, "electricity": 3800, "tyres_routine_maintenance": 2500, "cleaning": 1700, "fixed_direct_and_shared_costs": 15900, "operating_cash_surplus_before_finance_tax_owner_pay_and_capex_ebitda": 37500, "depreciation": 4500, "accounting_operating_profit_before_finance_tax_owner_pay": 33000, "year1_interest": 1800, "accounting_profit_before_tax_and_unpaid_owner_time": 31300, "unpaid_owner_time_opportunity_cost_not_extra_cash_expense": 5000, "profit_before_tax_after_owner_time_opportunity_cost": 26300, "ringfenced_battery_future_replacement_cash_not_expense": 1300, "debt_annual_payment_interest_plus_principal": 5500, "year1_principal_within_payment_not_an_expense": 3800, "cash_after_debt_and_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": 30800, "cash_after_debt_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": 25800, "unlevered_cash_after_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": 36300, "unlevered_cash_after_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": 31300 }, "capital_and_finance_gbp": { "vehicle_asset_cost_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 40000, "charger_site_capex_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 4000, "total_net_capex": 44000, "working_capital_buffer": 5000, "unlevered_initial_funding_net_capex_plus_working_capital": 49000, "loan_opening_balance_50pct_capex": 22000.0, "equity_initial_net_capex_less_loan_plus_working_capital": 27000.0, "hypothetical_20pct_capex_vat_bridge_additional_to_funding": 8800.0 }, "fixed_cost_detail_gbp": { "insurance_placeholder": 6000, "road_tax_permits_placeholder": 800, "connectivity": 600, "depot_parking_utility_standing_cost": 3600, "outsourced_remote_assistance": 2700.0, "business_admin_tools": 1200, "professional_compliance_allowance": 1000 }, "owner_time_hours_per_year": 200, "simple_payback_years_using_constant_year1_cash_not_forecast": { "unlevered_initial_funding_divided_by_unlevered_cash_before_owner_pay": 1.4, "unlevered_after_imputed_owner_pay": 1.6, "equity_initial_funding_divided_by_cash_after_debt_before_owner_pay": 0.9, "equity_after_imputed_owner_pay": 1.0 }, "no_input_vat_recovery_example_gbp_additional_cost_if_20pct_applies": { "upfront_capex_increase": 8800.0, "annual_electricity_maintenance_cleaning_increase_only": 1600, "other_invoice_vat_effects": "Not calculated: actual taxability/recoverability of platform, rent, insurance, finance and other costs requires real advice/invoices." } }, { "vehicles": 5, "scenario": "downside", "inputs": { "fare_gbp_per_occupied_mile_including_assumed_vat": 2.0, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_scheduled_service_hours": 0.2, "occupied_miles_fraction_of_total_vehicle_miles": 0.55 }, "operating_activity": { "scheduled_service_hours": 18000, "occupied_hours": 3600, "paid_miles": 57600, "total_vehicle_miles": 104727, "empty_miles": 47127, "total_driving_hours_assuming_16mph": 6545, "scheduled_hours_minus_driving_hours": 11455, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_calendar_hours": 0.082 }, "annual_gbp_rounded_to_100": { "gross_passenger_fares": 115200, "assumed_output_vat_within_fares": 19200, "net_fare_sales_ex_vat": 96000, "platform_commission_20pct_net_sales": 19200, "separate_payment_fee_2pct_gross_fares": 2300, "electricity": 9400, "tyres_routine_maintenance": 6300, "cleaning": 4200, "fixed_direct_and_shared_costs": 71500, "operating_cash_surplus_before_finance_tax_owner_pay_and_capex_ebitda": -16900, "depreciation": 22000, "accounting_operating_profit_before_finance_tax_owner_pay": -38900, "year1_interest": 8600, "accounting_profit_before_tax_and_unpaid_owner_time": -47500, "unpaid_owner_time_opportunity_cost_not_extra_cash_expense": 17500, "profit_before_tax_after_owner_time_opportunity_cost": -65000, "ringfenced_battery_future_replacement_cash_not_expense": 3100, "debt_annual_payment_interest_plus_principal": 27000, "year1_principal_within_payment_not_an_expense": 18400, "cash_after_debt_and_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": -47100, "cash_after_debt_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": -64600, "unlevered_cash_after_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": -20000, "unlevered_cash_after_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": -37500 }, "capital_and_finance_gbp": { "vehicle_asset_cost_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 200000, "charger_site_capex_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 16000, "total_net_capex": 216000, "working_capital_buffer": 20000, "unlevered_initial_funding_net_capex_plus_working_capital": 236000, "loan_opening_balance_50pct_capex": 108000.0, "equity_initial_net_capex_less_loan_plus_working_capital": 128000.0, "hypothetical_20pct_capex_vat_bridge_additional_to_funding": 43200.0 }, "fixed_cost_detail_gbp": { "insurance_placeholder": 30000, "road_tax_permits_placeholder": 4000, "connectivity": 3000, "depot_parking_utility_standing_cost": 12000, "outsourced_remote_assistance": 13500.0, "business_admin_tools": 6000, "professional_compliance_allowance": 3000 }, "owner_time_hours_per_year": 700, "simple_payback_years_using_constant_year1_cash_not_forecast": { "unlevered_initial_funding_divided_by_unlevered_cash_before_owner_pay": null, "unlevered_after_imputed_owner_pay": null, "equity_initial_funding_divided_by_cash_after_debt_before_owner_pay": null, "equity_after_imputed_owner_pay": null }, "no_input_vat_recovery_example_gbp_additional_cost_if_20pct_applies": { "upfront_capex_increase": 43200.0, "annual_electricity_maintenance_cleaning_increase_only": 4000, "other_invoice_vat_effects": "Not calculated: actual taxability/recoverability of platform, rent, insurance, finance and other costs requires real advice/invoices." } }, { "vehicles": 5, "scenario": "middle", "inputs": { "fare_gbp_per_occupied_mile_including_assumed_vat": 2.5, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_scheduled_service_hours": 0.35, "occupied_miles_fraction_of_total_vehicle_miles": 0.65 }, "operating_activity": { "scheduled_service_hours": 18000, "occupied_hours": 6300, "paid_miles": 100800, "total_vehicle_miles": 155077, "empty_miles": 54277, "total_driving_hours_assuming_16mph": 9692, "scheduled_hours_minus_driving_hours": 8308, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_calendar_hours": 0.144 }, "annual_gbp_rounded_to_100": { "gross_passenger_fares": 252000, "assumed_output_vat_within_fares": 42000, "net_fare_sales_ex_vat": 210000, "platform_commission_20pct_net_sales": 42000, "separate_payment_fee_2pct_gross_fares": 5000, "electricity": 14000, "tyres_routine_maintenance": 9300, "cleaning": 6200, "fixed_direct_and_shared_costs": 71500, "operating_cash_surplus_before_finance_tax_owner_pay_and_capex_ebitda": 62000, "depreciation": 22000, "accounting_operating_profit_before_finance_tax_owner_pay": 40000, "year1_interest": 8600, "accounting_profit_before_tax_and_unpaid_owner_time": 31400, "unpaid_owner_time_opportunity_cost_not_extra_cash_expense": 17500, "profit_before_tax_after_owner_time_opportunity_cost": 13900, "ringfenced_battery_future_replacement_cash_not_expense": 4700, "debt_annual_payment_interest_plus_principal": 27000, "year1_principal_within_payment_not_an_expense": 18400, "cash_after_debt_and_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": 30300, "cash_after_debt_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": 12800, "unlevered_cash_after_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": 57300, "unlevered_cash_after_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": 39800 }, "capital_and_finance_gbp": { "vehicle_asset_cost_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 200000, "charger_site_capex_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 16000, "total_net_capex": 216000, "working_capital_buffer": 20000, "unlevered_initial_funding_net_capex_plus_working_capital": 236000, "loan_opening_balance_50pct_capex": 108000.0, "equity_initial_net_capex_less_loan_plus_working_capital": 128000.0, "hypothetical_20pct_capex_vat_bridge_additional_to_funding": 43200.0 }, "fixed_cost_detail_gbp": { "insurance_placeholder": 30000, "road_tax_permits_placeholder": 4000, "connectivity": 3000, "depot_parking_utility_standing_cost": 12000, "outsourced_remote_assistance": 13500.0, "business_admin_tools": 6000, "professional_compliance_allowance": 3000 }, "owner_time_hours_per_year": 700, "simple_payback_years_using_constant_year1_cash_not_forecast": { "unlevered_initial_funding_divided_by_unlevered_cash_before_owner_pay": 4.1, "unlevered_after_imputed_owner_pay": 5.9, "equity_initial_funding_divided_by_cash_after_debt_before_owner_pay": 4.2, "equity_after_imputed_owner_pay": 10.0 }, "no_input_vat_recovery_example_gbp_additional_cost_if_20pct_applies": { "upfront_capex_increase": 43200.0, "annual_electricity_maintenance_cleaning_increase_only": 5900, "other_invoice_vat_effects": "Not calculated: actual taxability/recoverability of platform, rent, insurance, finance and other costs requires real advice/invoices." } }, { "vehicles": 5, "scenario": "upside", "inputs": { "fare_gbp_per_occupied_mile_including_assumed_vat": 3.0, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_scheduled_service_hours": 0.55, "occupied_miles_fraction_of_total_vehicle_miles": 0.75 }, "operating_activity": { "scheduled_service_hours": 18000, "occupied_hours": 9900, "paid_miles": 158400, "total_vehicle_miles": 211200, "empty_miles": 52800, "total_driving_hours_assuming_16mph": 13200, "scheduled_hours_minus_driving_hours": 4800, "occupied_hours_fraction_of_calendar_hours": 0.226 }, "annual_gbp_rounded_to_100": { "gross_passenger_fares": 475200, "assumed_output_vat_within_fares": 79200, "net_fare_sales_ex_vat": 396000, "platform_commission_20pct_net_sales": 79200, "separate_payment_fee_2pct_gross_fares": 9500, "electricity": 19000, "tyres_routine_maintenance": 12700, "cleaning": 8400, "fixed_direct_and_shared_costs": 71500, "operating_cash_surplus_before_finance_tax_owner_pay_and_capex_ebitda": 195700, "depreciation": 22000, "accounting_operating_profit_before_finance_tax_owner_pay": 173700, "year1_interest": 8600, "accounting_profit_before_tax_and_unpaid_owner_time": 165000, "unpaid_owner_time_opportunity_cost_not_extra_cash_expense": 17500, "profit_before_tax_after_owner_time_opportunity_cost": 147500, "ringfenced_battery_future_replacement_cash_not_expense": 6300, "debt_annual_payment_interest_plus_principal": 27000, "year1_principal_within_payment_not_an_expense": 18400, "cash_after_debt_and_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": 162300, "cash_after_debt_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": 144800, "unlevered_cash_after_battery_earmark_before_tax_owner_pay": 189300, "unlevered_cash_after_earmark_and_imputed_owner_pay_before_tax": 171800 }, "capital_and_finance_gbp": { "vehicle_asset_cost_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 200000, "charger_site_capex_assumed_net_recoverable_vat": 16000, "total_net_capex": 216000, "working_capital_buffer": 20000, "unlevered_initial_funding_net_capex_plus_working_capital": 236000, "loan_opening_balance_50pct_capex": 108000.0, "equity_initial_net_capex_less_loan_plus_working_capital": 128000.0, "hypothetical_20pct_capex_vat_bridge_additional_to_funding": 43200.0 }, "fixed_cost_detail_gbp": { "insurance_placeholder": 30000, "road_tax_permits_placeholder": 4000, "connectivity": 3000, "depot_parking_utility_standing_cost": 12000, "outsourced_remote_assistance": 13500.0, "business_admin_tools": 6000, "professional_compliance_allowance": 3000 }, "owner_time_hours_per_year": 700, "simple_payback_years_using_constant_year1_cash_not_forecast": { "unlevered_initial_funding_divided_by_unlevered_cash_before_owner_pay": 1.2, "unlevered_after_imputed_owner_pay": 1.4, "equity_initial_funding_divided_by_cash_after_debt_before_owner_pay": 0.8, "equity_after_imputed_owner_pay": 0.9 }, "no_input_vat_recovery_example_gbp_additional_cost_if_20pct_applies": { "upfront_capex_increase": 43200.0, "annual_electricity_maintenance_cleaning_increase_only": 8000, "other_invoice_vat_effects": "Not calculated: actual taxability/recoverability of platform, rent, insurance, finance and other costs requires real advice/invoices." } } ], "interpretation": [ "Numbers rounded to nearest£100 for article use. Underlying arithmetic uses unrounded values; rounded components may not sum perfectly. Scenario inputs are invented, not probabilities or observed Tesla performance.", "Operatingprofit=EBITDA minus depreciation; profitbeforetax then subtracts interest. Never subtract loanprincipal or full purchaseprice as another annual profit expense. Cash=profitbeforetax+depreciation-principal-batterycash earmark; do not subtract interest twice.", "Fivevehicle results are not simply5timesonevehicle: shareddepot£12000 vs£18000, professional/compliance£3000 vs£5000; sitecapex£16000 vs£20000. Remoteassistance, insurance andvehicle costs still scale; owner workload is separately700h. Economies are hypothetical and may be lost to staffing, premises, insurance or supervision requirements.", "A positive paperprofit can coexist with weak or negative cash afterdebt and fairly valuing ownerwork. The middleonevehicle scenario illustrates that tension. An8year assetlife does not validate a payback longerthan8years; replacements/capex must be modelled before calling such a payback achievable.", "Simplepayback is an undiscounted constant-year1 arithmetic ratio, NOT an investmenttimeline promise or IRR. Loan interest/principal mix changes over5years and payments later cease; assetreplacement and demand change too. No break-even years shown where numerator cash is negative. Ignore a ratio beyond the assumed life rather than present it as credible recovery.", "Workingcapital is funding tiedup, not automatically an expense or lost asset; included conservatively in initial payback funding. Model does not recover it at exit or include residualsalevalue. VATbridge may add further required liquidity.", "The downside consumes cash; a£5000/£20000 buffer is not evidence that a business survives a full downsideyear. Startup and insurance deposits/credit security can increase equity needed.", "Fairtransition ideas, not guarantees: driver-owned/cooperative fleets, transparent platform fee terms, affordablefinance with realistic security, shareddepots/charging, training and insurance pools, and worker representation over allocation and pricing. Model affordability and cashrisk rather than equating a lower upfront deposit with lowcost. Debt repayments can transfer demandrisk to workers.", "A driver-to-owner transition can benefit workers only if net earnings after finance, insurance, downtime and fair compensation for work exceed alternatives. Vehicle supply and demand cannot all expand without affecting occupancy/fares. Cooperative ownership can share fixedcosts and bargaining power but does not manufacture trips or ensure every member profits." ], "arithmetic_validation": { "gross_equals_net_sales_plus_assumed_vat": true, "occupied_miles_no_more_than_total_miles": true, "driving_hours_fit_scheduled_hours": true, "cash_reconciles_profit_plus_depreciation_less_principal_and_cash_earmark": true, "depreciation_and_principal_not_both_expensed": true, "all_6_scenario_rows_checked": true }, "asOf": "2026-10-28" }